* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 117 113 107 98 88 80 70 65 60 60 63 64 61 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 120 117 113 107 98 88 80 70 65 60 60 63 64 61 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 122 121 116 111 102 93 86 76 66 58 50 44 42 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 16 16 22 27 43 48 53 49 39 25 12 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 -4 1 1 -3 -2 -6 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 258 266 255 252 273 274 278 256 223 206 225 229 277 319 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 26.0 25.5 23.9 21.3 20.3 18.5 18.3 18.9 19.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 148 144 136 134 119 115 103 89 84 76 73 75 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.6 -54.4 -55.3 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.6 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 55 50 47 43 41 44 53 56 51 57 57 57 61 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 18 19 18 20 21 23 25 29 32 33 32 29 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -22 -18 -18 -12 13 49 95 58 49 55 70 89 86 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 20 -6 14 37 6 35 57 50 49 89 58 90 30 61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 13 12 9 9 9 -7 21 -37 -54 -43 -25 -3 3 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1351 1306 1252 1228 1223 1235 1262 1482 1780 1589 1059 746 583 414 209 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.7 34.4 35.5 36.0 36.7 38.2 40.4 43.1 44.8 45.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 61.5 60.8 59.2 57.6 53.3 47.8 41.2 34.6 28.1 22.3 18.2 15.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 15 17 21 24 27 27 27 21 13 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 12 9 9 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -19. -31. -44. -57. -67. -73. -78. -83. -88. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -16. -11. -6. -2. 5. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 13. 9. 4. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 2. -2. -8. -17. -27. -35. -45. -50. -55. -54. -52. -51. -54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 31.3 62.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 796.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.1% 12.4% 9.6% 4.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 4.1% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.4% 2.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 27( 66) 21( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 120 117 113 107 98 88 80 70 65 60 60 63 64 61 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 111 107 101 92 82 74 64 59 54 54 57 58 55 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 101 92 82 74 64 59 54 54 57 58 55 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 99 90 80 72 62 57 52 52 55 56 53 DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 87 77 69 59 54 49 49 52 53 50 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 120 111 105 102 97 87 79 69 64 59 59 62 63 60 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 120 117 108 102 98 88 80 70 65 60 60 63 64 61 DIS DIS