* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 112 108 105 97 90 86 79 70 64 57 65 65 61 50 36 V (KT) LAND 105 112 112 108 105 97 90 86 79 70 64 57 65 65 61 50 36 V (KT) LGEM 105 114 116 113 109 101 96 89 80 70 59 51 45 39 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 17 18 18 20 26 35 40 53 62 69 62 31 21 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 2 -1 -3 -6 -3 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 263 251 252 262 258 261 273 278 268 247 227 234 228 232 267 288 281 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.5 26.4 25.1 22.8 21.1 19.8 19.4 18.4 18.8 18.5 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 149 148 144 138 123 123 111 96 87 80 78 75 76 74 74 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.8 -56.2 -57.0 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 57 55 49 42 45 49 59 58 49 49 51 44 43 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 20 20 21 24 26 26 29 28 33 30 25 16 7 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -7 -10 -17 -25 -27 -5 24 84 98 58 36 61 79 41 22 2 200 MB DIV 20 50 24 10 19 17 34 44 61 53 63 42 46 15 -39 -19 -31 700-850 TADV 9 14 10 12 9 4 2 6 22 -13 -49 -37 -24 -5 -11 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 1308 1368 1318 1281 1237 1256 1245 1365 1605 1892 1386 993 767 557 383 302 275 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 31.9 32.8 33.6 34.8 35.6 36.1 37.2 39.2 41.9 43.7 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 62.0 61.6 60.4 59.1 55.5 50.6 44.7 38.4 32.1 26.1 21.5 18.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 14 15 18 23 25 26 27 23 15 11 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 16 12 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -24. -34. -45. -53. -59. -64. -69. -72. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -2. 4. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -2. -0. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 8. 5. 12. 7. -2. -12. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. 3. -0. -8. -15. -19. -26. -35. -41. -48. -40. -40. -44. -55. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 30.4 62.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 571.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.8% 21.5% 15.6% 7.0% 1.8% 6.0% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.2% 7.2% 5.2% 2.4% 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 23.6% 6.1% 5.6% 2.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 30( 49) 27( 63) 20( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 112 112 108 105 97 90 86 79 70 64 57 65 65 61 50 36 18HR AGO 105 104 104 100 97 89 82 78 71 62 56 49 57 57 53 42 28 12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 94 86 79 75 68 59 53 46 54 54 50 39 25 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 84 77 73 66 57 51 44 52 52 48 37 23 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 71 67 60 51 45 38 46 46 42 31 17 IN 6HR 105 112 103 97 94 90 83 79 72 63 57 50 58 58 54 43 29 IN 12HR 105 112 112 103 97 93 86 82 75 66 60 53 61 61 57 46 32