* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 83 85 84 85 83 83 80 80 78 65 61 57 55 48 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 83 85 84 85 83 83 80 80 78 65 61 57 55 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 85 86 88 89 87 83 78 68 54 41 34 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 18 21 15 20 25 40 52 64 77 58 30 13 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -6 0 0 2 3 7 -9 -3 -4 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 260 267 252 255 267 259 272 273 270 256 240 224 217 230 276 325 304 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.8 26.0 26.1 24.4 22.1 21.1 19.9 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 151 149 146 136 138 118 120 106 92 86 80 77 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -53.4 -53.0 -54.1 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 58 55 49 47 53 58 57 52 44 46 37 43 50 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 18 21 20 23 24 28 32 37 40 34 31 27 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -13 4 -7 -17 -24 -23 30 93 136 132 111 92 134 126 86 55 200 MB DIV 5 19 37 17 19 42 24 54 56 66 50 27 16 26 -5 -23 -21 700-850 TADV 8 8 14 10 15 7 12 1 7 -1 2 -36 -38 2 6 2 8 LAND (KM) 1232 1319 1318 1294 1249 1210 1264 1249 1391 1637 1795 1329 993 714 482 329 261 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.9 34.2 35.2 35.9 36.7 38.2 40.1 41.9 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 62.5 62.5 61.7 60.9 58.3 54.2 48.7 42.9 36.7 30.5 25.4 21.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 15 20 23 25 26 24 19 15 12 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 17 15 13 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -10. -7. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 2. 1. 4. 5. 10. 15. 23. 26. 15. 10. 4. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 8. 10. 9. 10. 8. 8. 5. 5. 3. -10. -14. -18. -20. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.7 62.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.54 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 18.3% 14.2% 12.9% 8.4% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 15.9% 10.2% 6.3% 2.9% 7.2% 2.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 12.8% 4.8% 1.3% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 13.0% 8.6% 9.1% 3.8% 6.6% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 23.0% 31.0% 22.0% 15.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 17.7% 22.0% 15.3% 12.0% 4.9% 5.8% 1.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 10( 22) 9( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 83 83 85 84 85 83 83 80 80 78 65 61 57 55 48 18HR AGO 75 74 78 78 80 79 80 78 78 75 75 73 60 56 52 50 43 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 73 72 73 71 71 68 68 66 53 49 45 43 36 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 66 67 65 65 62 62 60 47 43 39 37 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 83 74 68 64 65 63 63 60 60 58 45 41 37 35 28