* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 78 81 84 87 88 84 82 77 70 63 55 50 20 21 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 78 81 84 87 88 84 82 77 70 63 55 50 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 81 86 88 88 84 79 71 58 47 39 32 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 13 16 16 22 24 33 35 54 54 60 64 67 63 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 0 0 3 5 2 1 -6 -12 -10 SHEAR DIR 261 263 265 262 261 268 266 277 281 277 265 247 241 240 245 246 245 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 26.5 26.4 25.0 23.6 21.6 20.7 19.8 19.3 19.6 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 157 151 148 145 140 123 123 109 100 89 85 79 77 77 77 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 65 59 54 48 54 60 67 63 57 50 52 47 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 20 22 24 25 28 30 31 30 28 27 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -33 -19 5 -4 -17 -25 -8 40 141 157 49 17 30 67 66 29 200 MB DIV 28 5 25 45 8 23 39 30 46 88 80 29 57 68 34 21 0 700-850 TADV 1 10 9 11 9 13 12 18 35 24 77 25 -45 -47 -52 -52 -20 LAND (KM) 1152 1237 1323 1372 1322 1239 1249 1243 1373 1611 1864 1579 1071 754 549 351 158 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.5 34.8 35.6 36.1 36.9 38.3 40.2 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.1 62.2 61.8 61.5 59.3 55.7 50.7 44.5 38.7 33.3 27.9 22.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 10 14 18 23 24 23 23 24 20 12 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 20 18 16 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 15. 15. 13. 9. 6. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 19. 17. 12. 5. -2. -10. -15. -45. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.9 62.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.4% 14.3% 12.4% 9.1% 12.7% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 13.5% 7.4% 3.4% 1.4% 4.0% 3.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 4.8% 3.9% 1.1% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 12.6% 7.6% 6.4% 3.6% 5.6% 5.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 42.0% 73.0% 61.0% 47.0% 19.0% 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% SDCON: 24.0% 42.8% 34.3% 26.7% 11.3% 10.3% 4.2% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 9( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 74 78 81 84 87 88 84 82 77 70 63 55 50 20 21 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 75 78 81 82 78 76 71 64 57 49 44 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 71 74 75 71 69 64 57 50 42 37 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 61 64 65 61 59 54 47 40 32 27 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT