* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 62 68 73 73 72 75 77 77 76 77 84 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 62 68 73 73 72 75 77 77 76 77 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 48 50 55 64 73 77 76 71 65 59 53 50 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 8 8 8 8 14 20 31 39 31 25 37 49 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 6 2 1 5 5 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 264 278 271 263 228 257 250 266 267 254 256 248 240 213 218 211 202 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.7 28.6 27.9 26.7 23.7 22.2 20.9 17.7 16.0 14.1 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 149 154 155 164 147 139 125 101 93 86 75 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -55.1 -56.0 -55.7 -54.6 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 56 58 62 65 72 69 59 60 61 66 63 51 40 45 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 13 14 14 19 21 23 24 24 28 30 31 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -36 -50 -52 -49 -49 -26 0 14 5 21 80 145 110 33 14 14 200 MB DIV 22 7 6 19 28 -1 52 69 61 55 52 66 75 51 41 23 16 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 6 21 28 38 36 50 61 -28 -31 -14 -36 LAND (KM) 810 823 848 898 956 1109 1281 1345 1199 1046 893 1079 1482 1630 1303 995 708 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.3 28.1 29.9 32.1 34.6 37.2 39.6 41.7 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.4 58.1 58.9 59.6 60.5 61.1 60.5 57.7 53.5 47.8 41.4 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 14 19 24 26 26 23 17 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 39 40 36 28 24 15 10 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 11. 13. 12. 14. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 23. 28. 28. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 32. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.2 56.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.9% 9.6% 7.9% 6.4% 11.8% 13.7% 21.4% Logistic: 2.0% 8.8% 3.9% 3.1% 1.9% 11.3% 17.0% 7.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.8% 4.5% 3.7% 2.8% 7.7% 10.3% 9.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 26.0% 23.0% 26.0% 16.0% 17.0% 24.0% 9.0% SDCON: 4.5% 16.9% 13.7% 14.8% 9.4% 12.3% 17.1% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 50 54 62 68 73 73 72 75 77 77 76 77 84 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 52 60 66 71 71 70 73 75 75 74 75 82 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 48 56 62 67 67 66 69 71 71 70 71 78 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 49 55 60 60 59 62 64 64 63 64 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT