* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/19/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 55 61 69 75 80 88 89 85 80 76 81 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 55 61 69 75 80 88 89 85 80 76 81 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 48 53 59 68 77 85 89 80 65 52 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 12 7 9 9 6 8 8 14 24 33 47 40 59 61 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 4 2 0 5 -3 6 23 SHEAR DIR 250 266 278 257 241 265 212 252 243 262 266 253 260 278 275 258 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.7 28.6 28.4 27.0 23.7 22.7 18.5 15.9 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 149 149 152 157 157 164 146 145 130 102 96 79 73 69 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.6 -55.2 -54.0 -51.4 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 54 55 56 61 66 71 68 62 62 61 62 52 43 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 13 15 17 20 23 26 32 36 37 35 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 1 -7 -12 -36 -37 -33 -4 38 32 13 29 75 124 188 199 200 MB DIV 0 17 16 31 30 14 14 14 54 73 49 117 81 70 56 37 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 -3 -7 -7 0 -1 7 26 53 36 64 104 103 14 4 LAND (KM) 996 912 841 802 781 815 901 1070 1239 1341 1157 1020 751 955 1362 1525 1237 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.5 26.0 28.0 29.7 31.7 34.2 37.2 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.9 54.0 55.1 56.1 57.0 58.8 60.3 61.4 62.0 61.5 59.6 55.3 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 13 19 27 30 28 23 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 45 42 41 41 38 30 26 18 9 8 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 7. 16. 20. 20. 16. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 24. 30. 35. 43. 44. 40. 35. 31. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.9 52.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.8% 8.6% 6.6% 5.3% 10.8% 13.4% 23.3% Logistic: 1.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 6.3% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 5.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.9% 4.2% 6.6% 11.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.1% 4.2% 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 3.1% 3.8% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 47 49 55 61 69 75 80 88 89 85 80 76 81 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 46 48 54 60 68 74 79 87 88 84 79 75 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 51 57 65 71 76 84 85 81 76 72 77 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 44 50 58 64 69 77 78 74 69 65 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT