* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/18/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 52 57 61 69 73 77 83 83 79 80 91 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 52 57 61 69 73 77 83 83 79 80 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 43 45 49 56 65 74 81 90 90 79 65 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 13 9 10 5 6 5 8 15 30 32 49 60 48 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 5 4 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 250 250 266 277 256 249 200 244 282 284 284 288 275 274 258 239 219 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.5 28.0 26.7 23.8 22.8 20.3 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 149 149 149 152 155 157 160 159 145 140 125 101 96 86 76 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.9 -0.2 0.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 49 52 53 57 63 66 67 60 56 59 60 50 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 12 14 16 17 21 23 26 33 37 39 41 48 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 10 -3 -9 -27 -38 -38 -27 4 55 36 46 105 200 91 75 200 MB DIV 13 1 4 7 25 2 22 -6 27 62 74 72 70 85 46 6 56 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -4 -3 -7 -1 0 5 17 35 53 63 47 -31 -38 5 LAND (KM) 1051 973 904 836 783 770 807 953 1113 1304 1277 1123 968 855 1059 1365 1370 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.8 25.0 26.8 28.5 30.3 32.5 35.0 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.2 53.2 54.2 55.3 56.4 58.3 60.0 61.1 61.8 62.0 61.3 58.5 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 14 21 24 23 25 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 41 44 46 44 42 40 42 34 30 23 16 10 8 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. 1. 2. 6. 15. 19. 20. 21. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 28. 32. 38. 38. 34. 35. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.5 52.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.3% 11.9% 9.2% 7.2% 12.8% 14.8% 24.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 2.1% 2.4% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.6% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% 5.0% 5.7% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.8% 4.8% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 3.0% 2.8% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 46 48 52 57 61 69 73 77 83 83 79 80 91 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 45 47 51 56 60 68 72 76 82 82 78 79 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 44 48 53 57 65 69 73 79 79 75 76 87 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 42 47 51 59 63 67 73 73 69 70 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT