* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/18/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 45 45 47 47 49 55 59 64 66 65 66 62 62 67 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 45 45 47 47 49 55 59 64 66 65 66 62 62 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 42 43 44 49 56 65 73 79 80 76 68 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 19 18 13 10 10 7 9 8 13 14 25 33 35 55 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 2 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 3 3 10 9 3 4 SHEAR DIR 265 254 246 259 270 252 268 220 250 243 271 280 286 283 271 267 235 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 28.9 28.7 27.7 26.8 24.4 23.0 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 146 147 149 150 150 157 160 161 150 149 136 126 105 97 80 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 50 50 53 55 62 66 70 68 63 57 46 48 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 12 15 17 19 20 21 23 23 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 21 13 2 -9 -31 -25 -27 -5 15 27 26 45 115 169 144 200 MB DIV 6 15 6 12 8 20 15 25 18 12 58 53 66 41 64 64 90 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -2 -5 -6 -5 -3 4 1 13 26 48 77 51 20 48 LAND (KM) 1140 1063 994 915 847 783 794 873 1000 1173 1377 1266 1144 991 847 987 1358 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.8 27.4 29.1 30.9 33.0 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.1 53.0 54.1 55.1 57.1 59.0 60.5 61.6 62.0 61.6 60.0 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 11 14 19 21 25 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 43 46 45 41 41 39 32 29 21 13 9 8 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -7. -6. -3. -2. -2. 0. -0. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 10. 14. 19. 21. 20. 21. 17. 17. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.0 51.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.5% 11.5% 8.9% 6.8% 12.3% 13.5% 22.7% Logistic: 2.2% 3.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.5% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.9% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 4.7% 5.0% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 3.9% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 2.3% 2.5% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 45 45 47 47 49 55 59 64 66 65 66 62 62 67 18HR AGO 45 44 43 44 44 46 46 48 54 58 63 65 64 65 61 61 66 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 44 44 46 52 56 61 63 62 63 59 59 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 37 39 45 49 54 56 55 56 52 52 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT