* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/18/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 41 42 43 46 52 55 58 57 56 52 50 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 41 42 43 46 52 55 58 57 56 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 40 39 40 42 46 53 61 68 72 73 71 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 26 20 18 19 12 12 5 10 9 12 9 17 18 40 75 93 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -5 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 -1 -1 -9 -13 SHEAR DIR 261 272 261 254 267 258 266 243 234 281 277 288 289 286 263 243 249 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.7 26.3 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 144 147 149 152 151 158 160 160 149 145 132 124 121 100 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -52.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 55 54 51 52 53 57 63 65 69 64 56 50 53 46 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 13 11 11 11 12 15 15 17 17 19 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 29 14 12 24 9 -7 -22 -36 -29 -38 12 56 31 -9 8 77 23 200 MB DIV 20 5 20 21 11 10 2 7 7 32 41 53 3 39 38 35 22 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 0 -4 -5 -7 -5 -6 -1 2 6 9 11 -3 -89 -214 LAND (KM) 1258 1196 1121 1039 964 852 816 847 938 1057 1226 1318 1199 1076 963 765 761 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.7 23.9 25.1 26.5 28.0 29.7 31.5 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 50.7 51.6 52.6 53.6 55.6 57.6 59.3 60.7 61.9 62.8 62.4 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 10 13 15 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 41 42 44 42 39 42 35 31 26 19 13 10 8 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 7. 10. 13. 12. 11. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 49.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.1% 11.2% 8.7% 6.6% 11.7% 12.1% 20.7% Logistic: 1.6% 2.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.2% 4.4% 3.4% 2.3% 4.3% 4.3% 7.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 42 42 41 42 43 46 52 55 58 57 56 52 50 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 42 42 41 42 43 46 52 55 58 57 56 52 50 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 40 39 40 41 44 50 53 56 55 54 50 48 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 33 34 35 38 44 47 50 49 48 44 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT