* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/18/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 45 44 43 43 43 44 48 52 54 53 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 45 44 43 43 43 44 48 52 54 53 51 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 44 43 42 42 44 46 50 57 63 67 69 67 62 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 23 17 19 18 14 12 11 12 12 12 12 21 39 51 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 259 270 268 255 269 251 263 244 273 277 277 259 261 263 279 281 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.1 26.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 143 145 145 148 150 157 160 161 154 149 139 127 123 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 51 51 50 46 51 54 60 63 70 68 61 47 43 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 30 36 36 17 13 -14 -19 -34 13 46 51 22 -46 -106 74 200 MB DIV 76 48 20 38 42 16 2 -16 3 2 51 50 -2 -6 10 6 46 700-850 TADV 6 7 3 2 -2 -7 -8 -5 -7 0 -2 6 4 0 0 14 -4 LAND (KM) 1300 1251 1180 1096 1020 897 811 850 918 1022 1149 1308 1264 1103 924 839 671 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.4 23.3 24.7 26.1 27.6 29.0 30.5 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.9 50.9 51.9 52.9 54.8 56.8 58.5 60.1 61.6 62.8 63.1 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 10 12 16 21 23 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 40 41 43 43 40 41 38 31 30 22 18 12 10 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. -15. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.2 49.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.2% 12.0% 8.7% 0.0% 11.6% 11.9% 19.5% Logistic: 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.4% 4.4% 3.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/18/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 45 44 43 43 43 44 48 52 54 53 51 50 49 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 44 43 42 42 42 43 47 51 53 52 50 49 48 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 39 39 39 40 44 48 50 49 47 46 45 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 32 32 32 33 37 41 43 42 40 39 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT