* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/17/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 46 45 45 44 43 45 46 47 50 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 46 45 45 44 43 45 46 47 50 50 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 40 40 40 41 42 45 49 53 57 60 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 23 24 23 17 18 16 15 11 12 14 14 18 25 37 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 258 263 265 270 284 269 260 249 251 228 266 302 280 257 275 276 287 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 144 147 145 149 150 148 151 152 156 157 158 151 145 138 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 58 51 48 45 47 49 55 58 67 74 69 63 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 18 18 16 15 13 13 13 12 13 14 15 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 42 35 31 47 34 25 -3 -6 -27 13 51 53 34 16 -34 200 MB DIV 55 85 82 43 28 17 -20 -14 -3 -7 13 31 44 41 21 -1 12 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 -1 4 -1 -9 -3 -6 -5 -3 -4 10 5 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1415 1361 1301 1238 1172 988 829 755 784 848 928 1028 1195 1219 1245 1168 1049 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.2 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.8 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.6 48.6 49.8 50.9 53.1 55.1 56.9 58.4 59.5 60.7 62.2 63.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 8 9 11 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 38 40 41 44 46 42 41 42 36 33 27 21 18 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -13. -11. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 46.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/17/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.57 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 16.0% 11.0% 7.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 5.2% 3.2% 2.0% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/17/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/17/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 44 46 45 45 44 43 45 46 47 50 50 50 49 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 44 43 43 42 41 43 44 45 48 48 48 47 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 39 39 38 37 39 40 41 44 44 44 43 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 32 32 31 30 32 33 34 37 37 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT