* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SEVEN AL072025 09/17/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 41 44 46 48 49 51 53 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 41 44 46 48 49 51 53 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 35 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 16 17 18 14 15 13 14 11 9 5 9 11 13 11 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 290 275 278 269 267 279 260 249 255 254 256 289 345 354 346 325 288 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 142 146 146 147 150 151 151 153 156 158 153 157 158 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 69 67 56 50 46 46 49 56 61 70 71 69 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 55 53 43 38 32 39 53 41 24 4 -4 -20 -16 -23 -23 -19 -39 200 MB DIV 83 66 66 52 45 19 4 1 12 15 8 17 22 28 30 11 30 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 5 -6 -3 -5 -4 -4 -7 -8 -7 -7 -1 8 LAND (KM) 1208 1246 1300 1260 1188 1047 864 700 618 600 628 716 859 990 1098 1317 1231 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 37 38 42 45 45 48 47 45 45 45 39 33 31 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 21. 23. 22. 21. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 45.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 SEVEN 09/17/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.4% 9.5% 6.4% 4.7% 10.1% 10.8% 19.4% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.3% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.8% 3.7% 2.3% 1.6% 3.7% 4.5% 8.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 4.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 2.2% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 SEVEN 09/17/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 SEVEN 09/17/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 37 41 44 46 48 49 51 53 52 51 51 50 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 35 39 42 44 46 47 49 51 50 49 49 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 42 43 45 47 46 45 45 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 28 31 33 35 36 38 40 39 38 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT