* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 50 53 56 62 65 64 62 51 44 31 21 17 16 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 50 53 56 62 65 64 62 51 44 31 21 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 45 47 51 57 61 62 59 52 46 40 35 30 26 23 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 16 16 24 21 29 34 32 36 39 58 65 61 53 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -1 -8 -2 2 -6 -2 -12 -10 -7 0 3 SHEAR DIR 272 276 272 251 233 205 249 220 219 214 256 272 295 312 322 338 328 SST (C) 26.4 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.7 25.9 24.9 24.1 24.1 22.8 22.0 22.4 22.0 21.5 21.3 21.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 122 125 122 114 106 100 99 91 88 90 89 87 87 87 95 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.9 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -57.1 -57.2 -57.7 -57.6 -57.7 -56.9 -57.2 -57.0 -56.6 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 47 47 47 46 48 52 50 43 39 42 40 39 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 17 18 19 20 23 25 25 24 18 15 9 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 105 103 104 90 82 82 84 81 66 55 75 65 6 -47 -40 -22 16 200 MB DIV -20 6 7 -9 1 32 44 31 28 11 -34 -46 -65 -72 -36 -26 -26 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -8 -9 -4 -6 -3 -5 -1 -14 -20 -13 -27 -15 -42 -11 -22 LAND (KM) 1065 1068 1064 1069 1066 1086 1163 1273 1384 1494 1666 1508 1155 821 486 179 103 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.5 38.3 39.3 40.5 41.8 43.2 44.1 44.2 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 53.4 52.1 50.6 49.2 46.2 42.9 39.7 37.0 34.5 31.7 27.9 23.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 12 10 12 15 17 18 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 5. 3. -7. -12. -20. -25. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 19. 17. 6. -1. -14. -24. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.0 54.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.20 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 10.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 2.8% 1.9% 0% 0% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/26/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 47 48 50 53 56 62 65 64 62 51 44 31 21 17 16 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 49 52 55 61 64 63 61 50 43 30 20 16 15 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 50 56 59 58 56 45 38 25 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 43 49 52 51 49 38 31 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT