* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 51 55 61 65 68 64 58 52 59 58 67 75 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 51 55 61 65 68 64 58 52 59 58 67 75 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 46 50 56 61 65 63 56 48 44 43 43 43 43 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 14 16 13 21 22 32 34 30 30 47 32 32 41 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 3 -4 2 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 274 286 280 242 237 232 228 215 216 231 260 247 250 243 261 240 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.3 25.1 24.6 24.0 21.8 21.8 20.0 17.8 14.4 11.5 10.0 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 121 122 125 117 107 103 98 85 85 79 74 71 67 66 69 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.7 -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -57.0 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 -58.2 -58.1 -58.6 -56.4 -54.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.7 0.6 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 1.7 1.2 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 47 47 51 49 52 54 50 47 45 48 49 54 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 17 17 18 20 23 26 28 27 23 20 24 22 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 112 99 99 104 95 76 80 90 87 66 63 50 30 14 57 81 35 200 MB DIV -22 -14 5 14 -20 23 35 61 40 20 14 -8 27 69 40 0 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -6 -8 -9 1 0 1 0 -7 1 18 28 -3 -30 -4 LAND (KM) 1013 1071 1079 1073 1066 1065 1075 1127 1182 1223 1259 1324 1353 1292 1222 1054 627 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 36.9 36.9 37.0 37.2 37.8 38.9 40.2 41.7 43.2 44.5 45.7 47.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.8 53.6 52.3 50.8 48.1 45.2 42.3 39.9 38.2 36.9 35.5 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 13 12 11 9 7 9 13 21 15 16 25 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -15. -11. -8. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 2. 5. 7. 5. -1. -7. -1. -4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 19. 14. 7. 14. 13. 22. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.0 56.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.20 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 2.3% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/25/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 47 51 55 61 65 68 64 58 52 59 58 67 75 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 46 50 54 60 64 67 63 57 51 58 57 66 74 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 47 51 57 61 64 60 54 48 55 54 63 71 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 44 50 54 57 53 47 41 48 47 56 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT