* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 51 52 54 56 61 63 65 58 49 40 32 42 37 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 51 52 54 56 61 63 65 58 49 40 32 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 52 55 60 65 68 68 62 52 45 41 40 39 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 17 12 14 16 20 31 35 33 32 43 58 62 53 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 1 -2 -3 -4 -7 0 1 -4 -10 -10 -7 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 273 273 282 294 295 253 239 251 225 223 217 264 270 291 309 308 319 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.1 26.3 24.9 24.2 22.9 22.5 21.3 20.6 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 119 122 120 122 126 118 106 100 92 89 85 83 86 86 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.6 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -57.5 -57.5 -57.9 -57.5 -57.4 -56.5 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 45 48 48 50 50 53 54 52 46 42 47 50 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 16 17 18 20 23 26 22 17 13 11 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 113 106 98 95 103 78 80 72 81 65 44 74 57 13 -20 19 56 200 MB DIV 4 -27 -25 2 11 10 9 56 44 54 -29 -29 -32 -67 -40 2 -19 700-850 TADV -13 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 7 22 -4 -25 -19 -46 -4 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 956 1015 1086 1136 1137 1119 1101 1132 1199 1268 1354 1538 1573 1189 751 330 -181 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 36.8 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.9 37.9 39.2 40.8 42.6 44.2 44.9 45.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 56.5 55.4 54.1 52.7 49.7 46.8 43.6 40.5 38.0 35.8 33.0 28.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 12 10 13 16 19 23 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -0. 3. -3. -12. -17. -20. -9. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 15. 8. -1. -10. -18. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.1 57.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.16 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.6% 1.9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/25/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 50 51 52 54 56 61 63 65 58 49 40 32 42 32 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 50 51 53 55 60 62 64 57 48 39 31 41 31 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 48 50 52 57 59 61 54 45 36 28 38 28 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 44 46 51 53 55 48 39 30 22 32 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT