* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 54 54 53 51 51 52 53 55 55 52 55 64 58 54 V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 54 54 53 51 51 52 53 55 55 52 55 64 58 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 57 58 59 61 64 66 68 67 62 57 56 53 46 40 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 19 16 7 8 15 19 33 43 44 43 39 27 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 1 3 1 -7 -6 0 -1 0 1 6 1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 279 274 286 296 254 294 275 252 228 232 232 257 259 254 257 280 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.8 27.2 26.2 25.0 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.7 20.0 18.8 17.6 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 123 126 123 127 117 107 101 93 91 90 83 78 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -56.0 -56.2 -56.1 -56.9 -57.7 -58.0 -57.1 -55.9 -55.4 -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 -1.2 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 1.2 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 44 43 44 48 51 50 53 55 57 53 53 51 46 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 15 13 13 13 15 19 21 21 26 34 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 105 112 104 106 100 95 57 67 70 63 31 49 72 62 72 78 60 200 MB DIV 13 12 -31 -20 6 -8 23 36 42 30 14 -14 -19 10 12 4 31 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -5 -4 0 0 -5 -5 -4 4 16 -27 -11 -33 -45 -14 -3 LAND (KM) 900 955 1025 1094 1178 1188 1171 1142 1186 1261 1394 1648 1363 864 562 369 336 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 36.9 36.5 36.2 35.9 36.0 36.6 37.9 39.3 41.1 42.7 43.8 44.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.5 58.1 57.2 56.0 54.6 51.7 48.8 45.8 42.5 39.3 36.2 32.1 26.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 11 12 12 15 15 14 15 19 23 23 17 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -12. -8. -5. -5. 0. 10. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. 5. 14. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.3 58.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/25/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 54 54 54 53 51 51 52 53 55 55 52 55 64 58 54 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 49 47 47 48 49 51 51 48 51 60 54 50 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 43 43 44 45 47 47 44 47 56 50 46 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 37 37 38 39 41 41 38 41 50 44 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT