* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 51 48 43 48 49 49 48 52 51 53 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 51 48 36 42 44 44 43 47 32 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 45 38 30 32 31 30 30 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 26 23 23 21 38 47 64 65 71 46 28 29 37 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 -4 -2 0 -2 -20 -9 0 9 7 6 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 239 239 261 281 276 259 258 279 307 318 294 242 211 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 25.0 21.3 18.9 14.5 10.9 9.1 11.7 15.2 18.1 12.0 11.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 126 107 87 80 74 70 71 74 78 81 70 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -54.1 -53.1 -54.3 -55.5 -55.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.1 1.0 -0.4 -1.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 49 46 44 61 68 58 58 60 58 58 66 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 23 27 29 25 18 11 9 7 6 7 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 -2 -2 -13 -8 -2 -3 -24 -68 -40 5 16 46 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 97 107 27 18 55 91 50 -16 -54 -30 4 31 -39 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 19 15 30 34 53 72 48 27 -71 -40 -39 -45 -46 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 561 481 463 389 280 32 -19 349 1003 959 246 59 -284 -373 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.0 38.9 40.1 41.6 45.4 50.4 55.0 56.7 55.6 52.1 49.3 48.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 67.0 65.9 64.7 63.3 60.3 57.2 51.4 41.3 28.0 13.9 2.7 -5.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 17 20 24 30 28 33 42 44 32 24 22 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 9 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. 3. 9. 13. 17. 17. 22. 30. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 4. -2. -10. -15. -19. -23. -24. -19. -22. -23. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 11. 8. 3. 8. 9. 9. 8. 12. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 36.9 67.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.17 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 11.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.9% 1.7% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 51 48 36 42 44 44 43 47 32 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 46 43 31 37 39 39 38 42 27 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 38 35 23 29 31 31 30 34 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT