* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 47 50 47 38 30 25 26 27 26 25 22 15 18 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 47 50 47 38 30 25 26 27 26 25 21 28 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 35 29 25 23 21 21 20 20 19 28 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 29 28 25 26 24 31 36 31 42 68 75 75 65 41 9 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 6 1 1 6 0 -5 2 0 -13 -6 -7 -2 8 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 269 263 262 283 300 331 331 312 288 300 320 350 3 6 40 232 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.2 24.1 22.2 17.1 15.7 13.4 15.9 18.1 17.3 22.5 22.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 131 130 130 100 89 76 76 74 78 82 78 93 90 81 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -54.5 -55.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -56.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 60 56 52 48 49 46 41 44 48 49 59 63 70 61 43 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 26 28 23 15 10 8 8 6 5 8 9 6 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 22 28 10 25 2 -30 -68 -69 -41 -28 -92 -108 -26 -36 14 40 200 MB DIV 18 49 101 56 20 4 -61 33 19 22 22 -30 -45 -47 -89 -55 7 700-850 TADV 16 13 13 8 16 27 16 17 47 81 83 53 1 -14 -16 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 578 607 701 709 716 654 613 469 222 534 1220 1019 546 -25 -131 -3 -32 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 34.9 35.3 35.9 36.7 39.1 41.0 42.4 45.2 49.0 51.9 51.5 47.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.1 68.0 66.5 64.7 60.3 56.4 53.9 51.1 45.7 36.6 25.1 14.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 12 15 19 21 14 13 22 31 34 38 36 28 21 10 1 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 36 13 13 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 12. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -20. -25. -20. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 9. 5. -2. -9. -14. -15. -19. -21. -17. -16. -21. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 15. 12. 3. -5. -10. -9. -8. -9. -10. -13. -20. -17. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.6 69.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.35 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.9% 7.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 47 50 47 38 30 25 26 27 26 25 21 28 30 28 18HR AGO 35 34 38 44 47 44 35 27 22 23 24 23 22 18 25 27 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 40 37 28 20 15 16 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT