* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 45 48 50 44 36 42 39 44 47 36 33 31 35 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 45 48 50 44 36 42 39 44 47 36 30 29 29 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 39 34 30 29 27 27 27 26 25 29 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 45 40 29 30 28 30 40 40 39 48 62 76 64 66 50 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 6 3 2 4 4 -2 0 -3 -13 -23 -11 -6 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 284 271 267 275 302 310 306 299 299 313 332 351 359 9 22 237 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 25.3 19.8 15.7 16.5 13.5 16.2 19.3 16.8 22.9 22.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 135 133 133 136 111 82 74 77 74 79 84 76 94 89 85 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.7 -55.2 -54.7 -55.3 -55.3 -54.9 -56.2 -55.7 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 56 52 50 50 46 46 50 59 61 61 65 57 45 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 20 22 22 17 13 18 15 17 19 14 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 17 22 -1 20 0 -34 -67 -54 -72 -110 -118 -50 -18 4 25 200 MB DIV 59 -2 48 67 40 38 23 54 68 8 -22 -42 -46 -35 -78 -55 -15 700-850 TADV 7 13 12 17 12 26 42 31 27 43 28 10 1 -5 -27 0 -1 LAND (KM) 537 533 582 655 624 590 471 304 139 674 1363 897 469 -106 -128 -16 1 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.0 35.4 35.9 36.6 38.5 41.3 44.1 47.4 50.5 51.9 50.4 46.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.9 69.3 68.2 66.9 63.3 59.0 55.1 50.8 44.1 34.5 22.9 12.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 8 11 14 20 21 20 25 29 34 40 34 25 19 10 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 28 39 38 23 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -29. -24. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 2. -4. 2. -2. -1. 1. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 9. 1. 7. 4. 9. 12. 1. -2. -4. 0. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.5 70.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.45 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 4.7% 2.2% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 45 48 50 44 36 42 39 44 47 36 30 29 29 34 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 45 47 41 33 39 36 41 44 33 27 26 26 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 41 35 27 33 30 35 38 27 21 20 20 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 24 16 22 19 24 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT