* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 45 48 54 53 45 42 52 57 60 59 55 60 65 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 45 48 54 53 45 39 49 54 56 56 37 30 30 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 42 39 33 32 32 33 34 36 31 30 30 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 43 36 26 26 25 36 46 52 55 58 44 37 18 15 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 6 3 0 -1 2 -6 -13 -11 -1 -8 0 5 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 275 270 279 265 250 292 296 286 268 288 309 328 340 324 275 219 N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.7 23.9 18.0 13.0 11.9 11.9 15.1 17.3 12.5 12.2 12.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 131 136 135 101 79 72 72 74 77 79 70 70 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.8 -55.0 -55.1 -57.2 -57.0 -54.3 -51.6 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 58 55 54 46 48 60 62 59 63 61 66 71 70 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 18 19 23 20 14 10 14 14 16 18 15 16 15 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -13 -13 15 18 -10 -2 9 -29 -37 -47 -36 -29 -18 55 81 N/A 200 MB DIV 91 58 19 60 84 41 35 28 98 11 -27 -40 -29 9 -3 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 10 19 17 22 48 58 60 119 40 -18 -1 13 -7 -17 N/A LAND (KM) 587 589 617 617 562 513 348 169 135 776 1208 532 59 -177 -393 -197 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.9 35.6 36.3 37.1 39.0 41.9 45.7 50.3 53.5 54.1 52.3 49.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.3 68.9 68.2 67.2 64.5 60.9 57.3 52.5 44.1 32.2 18.1 6.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 12 18 21 25 29 32 39 44 34 24 22 23 N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 36 41 36 27 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 14. 17. 21. 26. 29. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -9. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 4. 8. 6. -2. -8. -4. -4. -2. -0. -5. -4. -7. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 13. 19. 18. 10. 7. 17. 22. 25. 24. 20. 25. 30. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.3 69.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.55 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 45 48 54 53 45 39 49 54 56 56 37 30 30 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 41 44 50 49 41 35 45 50 52 52 33 26 26 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 45 44 36 30 40 45 47 47 28 21 21 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 33 25 19 29 34 36 36 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT