* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 09/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 41 36 46 48 53 51 46 41 43 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 41 36 43 45 50 48 43 38 31 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 30 31 31 28 26 28 27 28 29 30 30 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 44 36 27 30 31 43 43 64 62 72 45 50 58 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -1 0 2 -3 1 2 2 -18 -11 -21 -5 -17 -13 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 282 277 274 281 265 295 304 294 281 279 295 318 334 347 353 333 307 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 25.4 20.7 16.2 10.8 12.6 13.5 16.6 19.1 22.0 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 134 133 112 86 75 70 72 75 79 82 91 141 134 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -55.2 -56.5 -57.9 -57.0 -54.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 700-500 MB RH 54 57 60 62 61 55 53 48 55 58 61 63 68 69 63 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 15 18 19 16 13 17 14 15 17 15 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -18 -12 6 -7 -11 -1 -5 -63 -52 -64 -53 -48 12 15 17 200 MB DIV 32 66 50 16 36 43 70 48 55 44 -4 -29 -46 -32 -10 10 -71 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 8 15 18 32 51 35 73 105 79 25 27 25 4 7 LAND (KM) 614 601 602 623 675 589 465 258 23 286 913 1341 656 359 99 -40 39 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.9 34.4 35.0 35.7 37.3 39.7 43.1 47.2 51.0 53.0 52.5 49.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.5 69.3 68.9 68.2 66.1 63.3 59.9 56.1 50.5 41.8 30.7 19.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 10 14 19 23 26 27 31 37 38 29 23 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 40 37 38 24 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 17. 20. 23. 23. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -22. -29. -25. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 6. 2. -2. 2. -2. -1. 0. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 11. 6. 16. 18. 23. 21. 16. 11. 13. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.6 69.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 09/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 09/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 09/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 41 36 43 45 50 48 43 38 31 36 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 43 38 33 40 42 47 45 40 35 28 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 38 33 28 35 37 42 40 35 30 23 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 30 25 20 27 29 34 32 27 22 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT