* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 11/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 36 36 35 38 55 70 77 74 66 46 44 27 19 41 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 4 7 5 0 -5 -15 -13 2 2 7 17 -3 8 15 SHEAR DIR 287 300 304 311 308 301 299 292 282 258 213 200 177 158 195 238 262 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.6 26.9 25.4 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.2 21.5 19.4 7.3 5.2 0.3 5.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 124 128 131 125 112 124 120 114 104 91 86 72 67 66 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.3 -54.3 -55.3 -55.8 -56.7 -58.1 -58.0 -58.4 -58.5 -59.3 -57.1 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 41 44 56 60 57 59 59 57 51 50 57 70 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -24 -29 -53 -72 -46 -52 -8 31 96 130 144 91 35 31 50 21 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -21 -24 -15 6 7 54 99 77 113 65 47 102 95 22 2 700-850 TADV 8 5 4 16 22 26 40 33 20 0 3 32 28 7 84 17 11 LAND (KM) 379 388 364 333 367 616 894 1053 1162 1465 1697 1250 636 415 573 884 637 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.6 26.4 27.7 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.7 31.6 36.5 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.3 74.1 74.6 74.6 72.5 68.6 63.5 58.5 53.9 49.7 46.6 46.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 15 20 23 21 21 26 30 40 42 24 22 29 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 27 23 19 8 5 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 27. 36. 47. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -4. -16. -30. -44. -53. -56. -57. -59. -61. -58. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -5. -12. -19. -26. -31. -31. -30. -23. -13. 2. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.7 72.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.54 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 5.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 11/10/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 31 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 29 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT