* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 11/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 30 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 30 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 29 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 37 37 52 70 79 79 73 68 49 27 39 29 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 -2 3 4 2 -6 -13 -20 -17 4 31 11 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 287 298 302 308 303 297 291 282 259 244 223 190 173 185 174 190 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.1 25.6 26.0 26.0 24.9 23.5 19.6 7.5 3.4 3.3 4.4 4.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 124 129 126 113 118 118 108 101 86 72 68 64 61 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -55.3 -56.2 -56.8 -57.7 -57.7 -56.8 -56.8 -53.0 -52.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 39 39 39 39 51 55 56 57 62 61 53 63 79 79 77 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -33 -44 -62 -68 -55 -25 5 88 128 156 187 181 258 212 124 200 MB DIV 6 -8 -9 -21 -27 13 10 73 85 102 116 78 101 162 73 13 15 700-850 TADV 10 6 5 8 20 33 44 41 46 19 9 5 -37 125 42 0 -18 LAND (KM) 406 391 400 364 335 510 850 1153 1259 1570 1464 869 142 5 -376 -213 -240 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.9 27.5 28.5 29.1 29.3 30.4 33.6 39.8 47.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.5 73.4 74.2 74.7 73.6 70.1 65.2 59.8 55.0 50.7 47.9 50.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 13 19 24 22 22 29 38 43 30 14 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 25 25 22 10 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 23. 36. 48. 58. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -15. -29. -43. -54. -58. -59. -62. -64. -60. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 8. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -27. -31. -31. -28. -19. -6. 8. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.8 71.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.03 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.44 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 1.1% .9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 11/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 29 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT