* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 11/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 37 35 33 40 55 68 78 78 74 53 48 32 33 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -3 -2 6 9 4 -6 -15 -13 -2 4 6 3 10 9 SHEAR DIR 259 270 278 288 295 299 294 296 284 279 257 227 217 220 206 203 220 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.2 26.8 26.2 25.3 23.4 22.5 21.6 21.5 18.7 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 129 126 132 128 122 110 126 120 110 97 91 87 88 81 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -54.4 -55.2 -56.0 -57.3 -57.8 -58.2 -58.7 -58.8 -59.1 -59.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 38 38 38 39 45 55 58 58 59 59 57 50 52 53 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -26 -26 -39 -67 -54 -34 -22 31 58 86 74 78 62 60 -20 200 MB DIV 19 1 1 -8 -11 0 6 29 57 102 117 146 111 111 129 99 25 700-850 TADV 4 7 0 7 8 22 25 29 27 26 5 -3 2 4 15 87 105 LAND (KM) 425 400 376 368 285 318 583 880 1072 1185 1474 1736 1551 1383 1170 1006 1153 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.8 25.3 26.8 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.3 29.2 31.1 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.0 72.9 74.0 75.0 75.4 73.0 69.1 64.1 59.0 54.6 51.1 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 9 15 20 23 22 18 17 15 15 21 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 23 27 24 16 8 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. -9. -22. -37. -50. -57. -62. -68. -72. -71. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -16. -24. -31. -34. -37. -40. -41. -39. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.8 71.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.39 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 5.6% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.0% .7% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 11/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 11/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 25 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT