* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 11/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 24 31 32 31 37 53 73 81 79 68 71 71 55 50 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 2 -2 3 5 -1 -10 -17 -12 -14 -14 -7 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 274 265 274 286 292 303 296 295 294 278 254 242 230 232 225 223 219 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.6 26.8 25.1 25.8 25.5 24.9 23.4 21.6 20.5 11.0 8.8 5.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 129 126 131 123 109 116 113 107 98 90 87 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -55.5 -56.1 -57.6 -57.5 -57.9 -58.8 -59.5 -59.1 -59.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 40 40 42 55 57 54 59 61 58 51 54 61 59 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -17 -29 -37 -31 -67 -73 -46 -24 14 72 79 63 30 -12 -65 -71 200 MB DIV 18 -4 -13 -3 2 -15 33 33 75 64 78 112 105 83 98 68 89 700-850 TADV 7 9 14 10 7 21 35 45 50 31 16 12 31 4 60 4 58 LAND (KM) 428 417 396 388 354 281 501 869 1195 1321 1578 1541 1198 832 672 687 677 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.0 26.3 27.9 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.9 32.8 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.5 72.2 73.2 74.2 75.5 74.0 70.3 65.2 60.1 55.8 52.0 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 8 9 9 8 14 21 23 21 18 21 27 31 27 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 21 25 28 20 9 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. 24. 28. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -7. -20. -34. -46. -54. -61. -69. -74. -72. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. -35. -34. -27. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.7 71.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 11/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.20 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.35 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 5.5% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 11/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 11/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT