* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 42 44 45 45 46 46 44 45 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 42 44 45 45 46 46 44 45 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 15 14 15 11 8 15 15 25 24 24 17 29 34 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 6 10 8 7 13 9 6 4 4 1 2 1 5 -11 SHEAR DIR 184 182 171 178 189 182 190 219 268 278 268 270 257 232 236 238 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 150 150 148 150 154 159 159 159 158 155 146 138 137 132 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 58 56 53 57 51 50 46 45 50 54 45 38 37 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 46 41 42 26 13 14 5 9 11 29 47 46 33 -1 -53 -61 200 MB DIV 16 27 49 87 71 1 -13 12 -6 26 7 25 44 60 17 22 34 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 1 3 2 4 6 7 3 8 8 -2 4 17 30 LAND (KM) 1775 1751 1729 1703 1620 1487 1408 1378 1411 1487 1618 1795 1989 2102 1995 1897 1830 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 28 29 31 34 34 33 32 28 23 16 13 11 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 41.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.2% 7.7% 5.5% 3.4% 8.4% 8.3% 13.5% Logistic: 2.1% 6.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 4.1% 7.2% 7.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 7.1% 3.5% 2.2% 1.4% 4.2% 5.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 6.0% 3.2% 1.6% 1.2% 3.6% 2.7% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/27/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 38 42 44 45 45 46 46 44 45 45 44 43 41 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 40 42 43 43 44 44 42 43 43 42 41 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 36 37 37 38 38 36 37 37 36 35 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 29 29 30 30 28 29 29 28 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT