* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 59 62 70 73 70 63 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 59 62 70 73 70 63 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 39 39 41 43 46 49 48 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 9 13 12 8 5 3 7 13 19 21 28 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 4 10 9 13 18 8 0 2 4 7 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 208 195 164 180 195 183 213 205 288 228 267 270 280 289 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 152 150 149 152 156 157 157 155 154 154 151 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 60 60 57 54 53 48 42 35 34 39 48 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 18 17 18 17 19 21 20 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 53 49 43 43 32 20 15 22 27 49 7 47 20 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 19 23 54 67 23 -28 -1 -4 21 11 -20 -5 -7 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 0 -3 0 0 6 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1803 1759 1721 1685 1657 1539 1425 1358 1356 1375 1429 1506 1611 1774 1973 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 3 3 3 5 7 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 26 28 29 31 33 35 35 35 33 30 29 27 20 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 2. -1. 2. 3. 1. -4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 21. 23. 29. 32. 40. 43. 40. 33. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 40.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.8% 8.1% 5.7% 3.6% 9.1% 9.3% 15.5% Logistic: 1.3% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 2.3% 5.5% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 7.5% 3.5% 2.1% 1.3% 3.9% 5.0% 7.6% DTOPS: 6.0% 24.0% 16.0% 8.0% 6.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.6% 15.7% 9.7% 5.0% 3.6% 6.4% 7.5% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/27/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 59 62 70 73 70 63 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 44 49 51 57 60 68 71 68 61 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 44 46 52 55 63 66 63 56 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 36 38 44 47 55 58 55 48 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT