* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 40 42 48 52 56 57 56 57 56 55 52 52 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 40 42 48 52 56 57 56 57 56 55 52 52 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 42 46 48 49 50 49 48 48 48 47 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 8 10 13 11 10 6 8 13 18 15 20 21 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 9 11 6 18 12 9 8 5 11 10 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 161 187 208 198 181 195 168 201 217 274 294 283 309 292 262 226 233 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 147 152 148 150 155 156 156 155 156 154 152 142 134 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 57 58 57 54 56 50 50 46 45 46 52 51 42 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 14 13 11 9 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 53 47 38 32 24 21 18 26 38 57 77 40 -1 -53 -42 200 MB DIV 20 33 6 38 55 73 0 -10 14 -7 62 -9 9 0 19 46 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 1 1 2 3 5 4 5 2 6 9 19 3 -9 LAND (KM) 1864 1801 1749 1716 1683 1595 1478 1413 1408 1434 1526 1613 1694 1858 2125 1929 1682 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 11 17 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 24 26 29 30 32 34 34 33 31 30 28 22 14 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 22. 26. 27. 26. 27. 26. 25. 22. 22. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 39.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.5% 10.8% 7.8% 5.0% 11.0% 11.8% 18.0% Logistic: 3.7% 18.6% 7.5% 2.1% 1.3% 7.4% 9.9% 17.3% Bayesian: 2.8% 21.5% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.8% Consensus: 3.3% 18.9% 7.3% 3.4% 2.2% 6.7% 7.5% 12.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.1% 13.9% 6.1% 3.2% 1.6% 4.3% 4.2% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/26/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 40 42 48 52 56 57 56 57 56 55 52 52 51 51 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 37 43 47 51 52 51 52 51 50 47 47 46 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 38 42 46 47 46 47 46 45 42 42 41 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 32 36 37 36 37 36 35 32 32 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT