* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 47 50 52 51 56 54 56 57 59 54 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 47 50 52 51 56 54 56 57 59 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 33 37 39 41 41 41 40 40 40 40 38 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 10 10 13 12 9 11 17 25 20 17 16 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 0 5 8 9 13 15 6 7 11 9 2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 138 147 178 201 207 190 193 201 224 263 266 280 288 269 232 215 213 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.0 25.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 163 165 161 157 158 159 154 155 146 140 132 119 109 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 61 60 62 58 57 58 56 53 50 52 50 49 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 16 15 15 14 15 13 15 15 16 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 86 69 68 58 57 33 25 18 11 3 13 1 4 -12 -25 -96 -100 200 MB DIV 25 28 47 36 36 69 23 0 0 9 49 41 55 60 56 17 33 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -1 0 2 4 -4 4 6 11 15 18 17 36 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1934 1857 1795 1734 1697 1663 1593 1529 1542 1648 1768 1961 2208 2192 2105 1901 1499 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.7 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.9 40.1 41.3 42.5 44.3 45.6 46.6 47.0 46.6 45.8 44.4 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 8 7 6 6 7 10 11 16 23 26 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 24 26 29 30 30 29 28 28 21 15 8 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 38. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -2. -6. -5. -4. -4. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 22. 25. 27. 26. 31. 29. 31. 32. 34. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 37.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 15.7% 10.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 20.5% 8.6% 3.6% 2.6% 14.5% 16.3% 32.7% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.6% 2.5% Consensus: 2.3% 15.5% 6.7% 3.6% 0.9% 5.2% 10.1% 11.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 28.0% 16.0% 6.0% 2.0% 7.0% 9.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.1% 21.7% 11.3% 4.8% 1.4% 6.1% 9.5% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/26/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 40 47 50 52 51 56 54 56 57 59 54 52 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 37 44 47 49 48 53 51 53 54 56 51 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 41 43 42 47 45 47 48 50 45 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 33 35 34 39 37 39 40 42 37 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT