* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/26/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 47 53 59 61 63 66 69 71 69 68 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 47 53 59 61 63 66 69 71 69 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 37 38 39 41 43 45 46 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 8 7 8 12 10 10 5 6 11 14 14 20 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -2 0 2 5 9 8 12 9 5 6 10 16 13 4 SHEAR DIR 128 119 124 152 187 163 175 180 177 173 255 282 298 303 322 360 43 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 163 164 165 159 158 158 158 156 155 153 144 140 133 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 61 60 59 60 56 59 55 58 54 55 54 54 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 15 15 13 13 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 69 66 57 48 39 35 32 19 33 39 44 39 5 -52 -61 200 MB DIV 42 27 22 42 35 70 61 4 2 8 -2 53 43 31 25 22 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 2 4 0 2 5 5 5 7 17 34 31 15 LAND (KM) 1999 1893 1818 1750 1705 1637 1603 1522 1482 1512 1594 1686 1814 1973 2212 2277 2151 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.1 39.3 40.5 41.6 43.6 45.0 46.2 46.9 47.1 46.8 46.3 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 6 5 7 8 11 14 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 25 24 24 30 31 32 32 30 28 28 27 21 14 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 42. 45. 45. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 27. 33. 39. 41. 43. 46. 49. 51. 49. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 36.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.97 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 12.6% 4.8% 1.2% 0.7% 8.1% 19.9% 30.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 16.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 0.9% 2.3% Consensus: 1.6% 9.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 3.2% 6.9% 10.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .8% 6.3% 1.8% .2% .1% 2.1% 3.9% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/26/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 29 36 47 53 59 61 63 66 69 71 69 68 69 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 33 44 50 56 58 60 63 66 68 66 65 66 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 39 45 51 53 55 58 61 63 61 60 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT