* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 58 62 66 67 72 71 75 77 81 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 58 62 66 67 72 71 75 77 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 25 30 34 38 41 43 45 47 50 52 53 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 6 10 14 14 7 5 14 18 17 15 13 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 2 5 4 5 10 13 6 9 5 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 108 108 101 126 153 193 171 184 193 201 229 270 277 280 253 229 222 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 27.7 26.7 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 161 162 164 162 158 156 157 154 147 141 136 125 115 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 58 60 59 61 57 56 57 58 55 52 51 48 51 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 15 15 17 17 18 17 18 17 21 23 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 92 89 85 77 66 56 48 41 49 40 33 37 8 4 -38 -97 -123 200 MB DIV 70 58 58 47 51 20 48 27 1 0 26 52 66 60 2 6 17 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 2 0 2 1 5 -1 4 6 11 12 17 1 26 -15 LAND (KM) 1941 1973 1884 1817 1758 1680 1652 1643 1626 1658 1791 1952 2175 2402 2165 1866 1532 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.6 21.0 22.6 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.6 37.0 38.3 39.4 40.5 42.5 43.9 44.8 45.3 45.4 44.7 43.8 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 9 6 4 4 7 8 11 15 21 24 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 26 24 23 27 30 30 29 27 26 24 16 10 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 44. 44. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 38. 42. 46. 47. 52. 51. 55. 57. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 35.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.95 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 24.6% 11.1% 3.6% 2.1% 9.6% 12.8% 31.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% Consensus: 1.3% 11.1% 4.4% 1.3% 0.7% 3.4% 4.4% 11.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.1% 13.5% 5.2% 1.6% .8% 2.7% 3.7% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 09/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/26/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 58 62 66 67 72 71 75 77 81 83 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 37 46 55 59 63 64 69 68 72 74 78 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 40 49 53 57 58 63 62 66 68 72 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT