* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 50 59 63 67 68 73 74 76 77 77 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 50 59 63 67 68 73 74 76 77 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 39 41 43 45 48 51 53 56 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 5 7 6 7 11 11 5 3 6 8 3 12 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 3 2 8 7 5 10 5 3 6 0 7 7 SHEAR DIR 114 110 114 133 150 217 198 196 191 236 295 305 288 303 182 226 251 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.6 26.4 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 156 158 159 160 158 156 156 154 151 144 136 123 110 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 59 59 58 59 61 56 59 56 59 56 58 55 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 13 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 91 90 81 76 64 41 41 30 32 48 36 24 -14 -42 -70 -98 -71 200 MB DIV 26 60 58 51 31 19 49 55 2 -3 19 29 49 37 23 5 32 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 2 4 1 2 2 1 2 4 5 4 3 0 10 7 LAND (KM) 1737 1865 2004 1964 1888 1789 1736 1724 1671 1667 1745 1904 2147 2347 2178 1954 1439 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 21.0 22.7 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.9 36.2 37.5 38.8 41.0 42.9 44.2 45.0 45.4 45.2 44.3 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 6 4 5 8 12 17 22 25 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 24 23 23 26 27 27 27 27 26 17 10 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. 43. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -1. 0. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 30. 39. 43. 47. 48. 54. 54. 56. 57. 57. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 33.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 34.2% 18.3% 7.3% 4.4% 19.1% 27.8% 42.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 24.6% 8.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2.5% 3.3% 4.3% Consensus: 2.3% 19.6% 9.0% 2.8% 1.6% 7.2% 10.4% 15.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.6% 18.3% 7.5% 2.4% .8% 9.1% 8.2% 9.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/25/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 30 34 41 50 59 63 67 68 73 74 76 77 77 80 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 37 46 55 59 63 64 69 70 72 73 73 76 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 40 49 53 57 58 63 64 66 67 67 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT