* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 51 59 66 70 73 77 79 79 75 72 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 51 59 66 70 73 77 79 79 75 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 44 47 49 52 57 60 60 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 4 2 7 5 9 11 4 0 1 8 11 11 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 5 7 6 8 9 10 1 5 7 3 0 SHEAR DIR 137 132 132 126 130 151 202 174 196 204 210 54 307 319 333 327 291 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 158 158 160 164 162 157 156 155 153 147 140 134 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 61 59 59 59 60 57 57 58 58 56 54 54 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 11 10 7 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 97 93 84 54 42 40 29 37 45 38 33 -5 -39 -76 -96 200 MB DIV 21 13 56 58 52 42 36 42 19 16 3 24 45 40 16 0 5 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 2 -1 2 0 4 4 8 11 18 4 9 LAND (KM) 1662 1812 1962 1978 1890 1768 1698 1679 1673 1674 1705 1824 1992 2220 2372 2156 1931 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.8 21.1 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.4 35.8 37.1 38.4 40.7 42.6 43.9 44.6 44.9 45.0 44.4 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 5 3 4 6 8 11 14 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 23 25 23 27 29 29 28 26 26 23 16 11 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. 46. 46. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 39. 46. 50. 53. 57. 59. 59. 55. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.7 33.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.93 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 40.2% 23.4% 8.0% 5.1% 22.2% 33.9% 47.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 25.3% 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 4.0% 16.8% 12.6% Consensus: 2.8% 21.8% 9.3% 2.8% 1.8% 8.8% 16.9% 20.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 12.4% 5.1% 1.9% .9% 4.9% 8.4% 10.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/25/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 41 51 59 66 70 73 77 79 79 75 72 75 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 38 48 56 63 67 70 74 76 76 72 69 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 32 42 50 57 61 64 68 70 70 66 63 66 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT