* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 09/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 34 43 53 63 70 75 78 80 83 80 77 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 34 43 53 63 70 75 78 80 83 80 77 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 43 48 52 54 55 57 58 57 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 3 4 5 5 5 9 9 4 2 7 16 17 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -7 -3 -3 -2 3 4 5 8 6 13 7 4 7 4 4 SHEAR DIR 110 132 114 119 85 128 194 207 193 200 232 273 308 311 356 20 357 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 154 156 157 158 159 158 156 153 152 148 140 135 131 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 62 61 59 59 59 60 57 59 57 58 54 55 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 96 96 99 99 86 61 44 36 36 35 48 30 20 -9 -41 -84 -94 200 MB DIV 12 13 15 53 66 33 34 37 48 26 -4 22 27 15 17 -20 -9 700-850 TADV 0 2 -1 -4 -3 2 1 4 2 4 2 7 7 8 8 6 5 LAND (KM) 1491 1652 1790 1919 2013 1872 1781 1750 1745 1727 1725 1800 1945 2114 2334 2299 2106 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.8 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.9 34.2 35.4 36.7 39.0 41.0 42.7 43.7 44.4 44.8 44.6 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 12 12 11 10 8 5 4 6 7 8 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 20 22 23 23 26 26 27 26 26 25 18 14 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. 46. 47. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 14. 23. 33. 43. 50. 55. 58. 60. 63. 60. 57. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 31.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 09/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 31.7% 16.2% 5.1% 3.3% 23.5% 42.4% 57.7% Bayesian: 2.6% 19.7% 5.6% 0.8% 0.4% 5.3% 15.4% 11.4% Consensus: 2.8% 17.1% 7.3% 1.9% 1.2% 9.6% 19.3% 23.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 09/25/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 34 43 53 63 70 75 78 80 83 80 77 75 77 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 31 40 50 60 67 72 75 77 80 77 74 72 74 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 25 34 44 54 61 66 69 71 74 71 68 66 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT