* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 56 68 79 88 98 102 105 106 102 104 105 103 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 56 68 79 88 98 102 105 106 102 104 105 103 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 33 42 53 63 74 83 87 90 92 91 89 89 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 7 8 4 4 5 5 7 5 10 5 18 10 23 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 1 2 7 4 1 1 8 3 11 5 12 1 9 SHEAR DIR 79 63 49 39 49 334 10 258 297 273 284 279 304 268 265 284 261 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 148 151 157 158 164 159 157 154 153 153 147 138 138 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.0 -49.3 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 64 64 62 62 59 57 58 63 65 63 52 47 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 17 21 25 27 32 33 35 37 36 40 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 58 60 61 63 48 23 -1 -24 -1 42 98 102 128 151 163 200 MB DIV 11 38 53 50 63 85 89 78 87 77 105 103 140 81 84 -5 43 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -10 -3 -6 -6 -22 -16 -2 9 26 17 21 22 28 16 11 LAND (KM) 1097 1032 909 680 471 176 32 6 168 304 484 657 836 953 901 904 807 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 21 22 21 18 14 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 55 69 63 75 48 60 62 67 49 34 32 26 18 18 22 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. 39. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 27. 28. 30. 32. 29. 32. 34. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 31. 43. 54. 63. 73. 77. 80. 81. 77. 79. 80. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 47.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 18.6% 11.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 10.9% 5.8% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 5.0% 0.9% Consensus: 2.1% 11.7% 6.4% 3.2% 0.2% 1.2% 7.0% 1.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% SDCON: 1.5% 9.8% 4.7% 2.1% .1% 1.6% 4.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 36 42 56 68 79 88 98 102 105 106 102 104 105 103 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 53 65 76 85 95 99 102 103 99 101 102 100 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 46 58 69 78 88 92 95 96 92 94 95 93 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 35 47 58 67 77 81 84 85 81 83 84 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT