* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 51 66 74 83 93 99 102 104 104 102 103 102 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 51 66 74 83 93 99 102 104 104 102 103 102 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 55 65 74 81 84 87 88 86 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 10 11 8 7 3 7 7 10 6 15 7 21 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 3 3 2 10 4 2 -1 2 5 12 4 9 2 SHEAR DIR 81 77 64 44 37 43 359 327 276 171 277 293 320 290 325 278 331 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.9 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 148 148 162 161 160 157 157 154 154 153 146 136 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 66 64 62 62 60 57 57 57 62 61 59 53 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 16 21 22 25 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 58 58 62 66 64 46 17 -8 -23 31 71 118 122 133 124 200 MB DIV 8 16 42 61 77 77 77 53 56 108 96 104 86 90 69 6 24 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -7 -5 0 -10 -13 -25 -12 0 14 16 18 17 18 15 6 LAND (KM) 1201 1124 1059 975 732 322 68 79 51 232 375 556 686 896 897 855 850 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 20 23 23 20 17 14 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 49 68 56 58 46 74 62 63 41 33 39 23 16 25 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 41. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 14. 19. 26. 29. 29. 30. 30. 30. 32. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 41. 49. 58. 68. 74. 77. 79. 79. 77. 78. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 44.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 16.1% 10.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.7% 3.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 6.0% 7.3% Consensus: 1.5% 10.2% 5.1% 2.7% 0.2% 0.8% 7.2% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.2% 7.6% 3.5% 1.8% .1% .9% 4.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 40 51 66 74 83 93 99 102 104 104 102 103 102 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 37 48 63 71 80 90 96 99 101 101 99 100 99 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 42 57 65 74 84 90 93 95 95 93 94 93 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 46 54 63 73 79 82 84 84 82 83 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT