* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/11/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 65 77 83 89 95 98 103 101 98 95 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 65 77 81 87 92 95 100 98 95 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 63 63 77 81 83 88 90 86 81 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 10 7 11 3 1 9 4 7 2 7 20 16 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 1 1 1 10 3 3 4 6 5 3 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 87 76 86 66 61 62 104 337 240 270 204 289 287 341 315 337 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 145 149 159 158 162 156 150 150 152 153 154 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 65 62 61 58 59 58 58 58 64 66 68 59 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 14 17 20 22 24 26 27 30 30 29 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 62 69 67 68 64 59 54 19 -11 -9 32 68 83 94 79 200 MB DIV 45 19 28 55 41 95 64 56 34 76 85 99 90 76 16 77 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -1 -3 -16 -10 -6 2 18 14 24 14 11 9 LAND (KM) 1276 1189 1102 1047 882 445 120 90 4 135 264 444 581 784 879 814 811 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 20 21 22 23 19 14 12 11 10 10 9 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 46 39 54 58 70 50 78 69 48 40 33 38 42 18 25 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. 42. 42. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 15. 18. 21. 21. 24. 22. 20. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 40. 52. 58. 64. 70. 73. 78. 76. 73. 70. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 43.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.0% 9.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 12.3% 6.1% 2.1% 1.2% 4.3% 7.0% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 23.9% 6.7% 0.4% 0.8% 2.6% 14.4% 17.3% Consensus: 2.4% 17.1% 7.5% 3.1% 0.7% 2.3% 11.4% 8.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% SDCON: 1.7% 13.5% 5.7% 2.5% .8% 3.6% 7.2% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/11/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 41 52 65 77 81 87 92 95 100 98 95 93 93 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 48 61 73 77 83 88 91 96 94 91 89 89 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 41 54 66 70 76 81 84 89 87 84 82 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 44 56 60 66 71 74 79 77 74 72 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT