* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 74 83 89 92 94 92 94 93 90 89 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 74 83 89 92 94 92 94 93 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 37 45 56 69 79 85 85 84 86 86 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 15 14 13 13 11 9 5 1 8 4 8 3 16 14 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 3 6 3 4 0 13 SHEAR DIR 79 87 77 86 70 40 67 31 108 277 157 292 331 323 4 347 151 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 142 145 154 160 162 161 152 152 151 154 154 154 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 64 58 58 60 61 62 64 64 69 71 74 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 13 16 20 21 24 24 24 22 24 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 51 61 76 73 70 66 53 30 16 -13 2 17 54 91 116 200 MB DIV 58 52 31 33 60 76 56 69 53 58 77 68 100 82 124 89 58 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 0 1 -5 -6 -11 -13 -4 -4 16 13 27 28 2 LAND (KM) 1371 1284 1213 1095 1017 637 289 44 56 40 195 309 506 642 780 902 793 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 19 23 22 22 21 15 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 39 38 53 58 52 50 81 59 58 39 34 43 43 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 12. 14. 17. 17. 16. 12. 13. 14. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 35. 49. 58. 64. 67. 69. 67. 69. 68. 65. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 41.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 16.2% 10.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 10.1% 4.3% 1.1% 0.7% 3.6% 7.3% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 13.9% 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 11.7% 5.8% Consensus: 2.0% 13.4% 6.2% 2.9% 0.3% 1.6% 10.6% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 8.2% 3.6% 1.9% .1% 1.3% 5.8% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/11/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/11/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 74 83 89 92 94 92 94 93 90 89 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 44 56 70 79 85 88 90 88 90 89 86 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 50 64 73 79 82 84 82 84 83 80 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 41 55 64 70 73 75 73 75 74 71 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT