* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 50 60 72 77 81 83 83 87 86 86 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 50 60 72 77 81 83 83 87 86 86 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 33 41 48 54 57 58 63 68 70 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 16 16 17 11 12 8 3 13 14 13 9 17 18 25 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 2 -2 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 87 75 77 69 77 52 30 20 325 260 292 266 311 304 315 238 198 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 148 147 142 144 148 155 158 159 152 151 152 154 155 152 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 67 65 61 60 60 61 60 64 61 65 69 74 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 14 17 19 21 21 19 21 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 45 45 47 52 37 28 4 -9 -23 -27 -16 31 74 99 81 200 MB DIV 66 60 50 38 40 59 63 53 67 52 57 47 60 75 91 89 148 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 1 0 -3 -1 -10 -7 -3 0 14 13 16 15 -7 LAND (KM) 1485 1396 1298 1230 1163 1046 749 484 187 97 249 303 387 535 800 745 760 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.9 19.1 20.7 22.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.6 43.0 44.4 45.9 49.2 52.8 56.4 60.0 63.3 66.3 68.9 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 18 18 19 17 17 15 13 11 11 15 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 23 33 41 54 54 50 65 61 50 40 32 32 30 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 41. 44. 47. 47. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 14. 13. 9. 10. 12. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 30. 40. 52. 57. 61. 63. 63. 67. 66. 66. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 40.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 16.6% 7.3% 4.9% 6.0% 11.2% 12.3% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 4.0% Consensus: 1.8% 9.7% 3.2% 1.8% 2.1% 3.8% 4.3% 8.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.8% 2.1% .9% 1.0% 2.4% 2.1% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/10/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 31 39 50 60 72 77 81 83 83 87 86 86 79 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 28 36 47 57 69 74 78 80 80 84 83 83 76 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 30 41 51 63 68 72 74 74 78 77 77 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT