* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 55 55 57 59 59 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 55 55 57 59 59 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 32 33 34 34 36 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 20 18 16 18 13 16 16 19 24 22 20 11 18 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 3 -1 0 0 0 -5 -2 -1 -4 0 2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 75 85 87 88 80 61 29 5 347 324 285 299 266 273 259 333 293 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 140 141 146 139 143 150 157 153 158 159 153 159 157 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 73 71 68 65 62 62 62 63 62 66 63 68 68 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 40 46 50 58 47 39 32 11 0 0 5 4 13 28 29 200 MB DIV 51 47 61 70 61 35 66 48 47 67 39 52 28 89 66 60 57 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 -8 -18 -18 -29 -6 -4 -7 -2 5 LAND (KM) 1629 1563 1461 1365 1267 1110 997 657 424 70 75 218 257 267 390 385 473 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 13.0 13.9 15.2 16.5 18.0 19.4 20.8 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.4 40.6 41.8 43.2 46.3 49.9 53.7 57.4 61.2 64.6 67.8 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 17 19 19 20 18 17 15 14 10 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 34 24 19 22 33 52 57 52 51 62 58 39 67 69 50 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. 50. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -18. -20. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 21. 28. 33. 35. 35. 37. 39. 39. 37. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 38.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 3.2% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 55 55 57 59 59 57 58 59 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 24 31 39 46 51 53 53 55 57 57 55 56 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 20 27 35 42 47 49 49 51 53 53 51 52 53 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT