* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982024 08/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 48 50 52 53 55 56 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 48 50 52 53 55 56 56 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 31 32 33 34 35 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 19 19 16 17 13 18 18 17 14 26 15 17 6 20 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 3 3 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 3 3 1 10 SHEAR DIR 75 75 79 86 85 61 48 13 2 331 285 274 259 280 272 306 328 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 146 142 140 146 140 147 155 153 156 156 156 152 150 151 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 71 69 65 63 58 62 62 62 61 63 63 67 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 45 37 32 42 49 49 37 31 19 -3 -15 -11 -11 30 21 54 200 MB DIV 56 60 53 73 68 17 47 24 24 73 55 47 50 33 75 43 58 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 2 -9 -5 -20 -18 -17 -9 -1 1 12 LAND (KM) 1641 1640 1637 1533 1431 1226 1078 859 524 272 61 174 253 309 360 479 660 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.8 17.1 18.6 20.0 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.5 38.6 39.8 41.1 44.2 47.6 51.6 55.4 59.1 62.5 65.8 68.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 17 18 20 19 19 17 16 12 10 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 45 42 30 21 29 44 52 66 66 50 51 46 39 34 30 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 28. 34. 39. 44. 47. 50. 51. 52. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 36.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.7% 2.5% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST 08/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST 08/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 48 50 52 53 55 56 56 56 56 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 28 34 41 46 48 50 51 53 54 54 54 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 24 30 37 42 44 46 47 49 50 50 50 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT