* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 28 31 38 44 47 50 52 56 61 66 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 28 31 38 44 47 38 38 42 47 44 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 27 31 35 41 42 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 15 13 16 15 17 13 10 6 5 6 4 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 335 331 329 330 331 308 319 317 350 312 33 280 87 186 132 198 244 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.4 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.2 27.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 153 156 159 159 154 153 157 152 160 152 160 158 154 134 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 10 8 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 58 60 60 63 67 69 72 74 73 69 73 72 73 72 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 18 23 22 26 6 2 9 27 52 85 66 55 52 45 27 200 MB DIV 16 26 44 34 37 59 58 27 50 22 27 58 22 44 51 50 21 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 -1 -4 -3 -10 -17 -10 -16 -10 -10 -3 -4 4 -2 3 LAND (KM) 293 274 252 221 155 88 204 297 187 -111 129 322 159 -20 -207 -392 -386 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.6 72.2 73.5 74.7 75.7 77.9 80.2 82.8 85.8 88.8 91.7 94.2 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 11 11 12 14 15 15 14 12 10 9 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 90 104 61 65 85 121 42 46 76 4 27 24 39 27 16 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 13. 19. 22. 25. 27. 31. 36. 41. 41. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 70.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 15.4% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 6.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.3% 5.4% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% Consensus: 2.4% 8.0% 5.6% 2.8% 0.2% 1.6% 6.6% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 28 31 38 44 47 38 38 42 47 44 33 29 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 27 30 37 43 46 37 37 41 46 43 32 28 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 26 33 39 42 33 33 37 42 39 28 24 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 25 31 34 25 25 29 34 31 20 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT