* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 42 45 48 51 56 60 64 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 42 45 48 38 39 43 48 43 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 27 31 36 43 51 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 13 11 14 15 18 8 15 7 7 2 5 7 4 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 0 4 0 -4 -1 0 -4 0 -4 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 338 334 323 316 325 319 307 326 315 2 254 78 219 117 135 75 77 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 159 155 154 159 159 152 153 157 153 167 150 148 153 142 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 57 58 62 66 69 72 73 75 74 79 78 78 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 19 17 16 21 32 32 9 20 21 51 48 69 64 69 72 74 200 MB DIV 56 45 16 31 41 56 49 60 62 54 38 38 61 26 62 37 52 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -4 -7 -7 -3 -19 -6 -10 -5 -4 0 -3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 374 310 229 217 183 113 86 261 262 146 -92 87 221 131 -6 -188 -346 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 69.3 71.1 72.5 73.7 76.0 78.3 80.8 83.3 86.3 89.0 91.6 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 21 16 13 12 11 12 12 13 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 86 84 64 56 86 115 38 50 52 11 32 21 18 21 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 27 CX,CY: -25/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 902 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 38. 41. 44. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 20. 23. 26. 31. 35. 40. 41. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 67.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 13.9% 8.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 7.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% 2.9% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 2.5% Consensus: 1.6% 7.3% 4.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.7% 4.5% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/04/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 42 45 48 38 39 43 48 43 33 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 33 41 44 47 37 38 42 47 42 32 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 29 37 40 43 33 34 38 43 38 28 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 22 30 33 36 26 27 31 36 31 21 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT