* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 34 38 43 47 50 58 64 67 69 70 73 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 34 38 36 42 46 53 43 47 50 51 54 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 25 29 31 36 32 38 44 52 61 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 12 12 16 12 16 9 17 7 13 4 9 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 3 3 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 0 2 0 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 333 333 332 334 315 304 287 311 309 331 333 356 36 23 107 37 166 SST (C) 28.8 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.3 27.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 30.2 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 163 160 160 156 157 164 161 159 155 159 135 151 154 156 172 172 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 55 57 59 64 67 71 71 72 70 70 72 71 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 10 10 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 26 13 12 20 24 23 17 -3 7 2 71 86 67 32 39 200 MB DIV 49 49 49 29 35 38 39 64 55 34 27 31 15 46 48 22 36 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 1 3 -3 -2 -1 -3 -16 -5 -3 0 -7 5 -1 5 LAND (KM) 319 379 332 290 182 135 98 -26 163 233 166 -52 169 401 208 6 -163 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.1 21.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.2 66.6 68.5 70.0 71.3 73.4 75.4 77.5 79.8 82.5 85.5 88.6 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 22 18 15 13 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 13 11 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 47 70 90 67 56 111 122 52 79 78 15 21 29 34 33 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 27 CX,CY: -26/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 38. 41. 44. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 33. 39. 42. 44. 45. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 64.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 18.1% 11.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 13.1% 8.2% 2.5% 0.8% 2.8% 2.1% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% Consensus: 2.4% 11.0% 7.0% 3.6% 0.3% 1.0% 5.0% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 34 38 36 42 46 53 43 47 50 51 54 35 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 33 37 35 41 45 52 42 46 49 50 53 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 32 30 36 40 47 37 41 44 45 48 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 25 23 29 33 40 30 34 37 38 41 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT