* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 43 45 45 45 44 47 50 54 52 51 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 43 43 38 33 33 36 40 43 42 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 25 26 26 29 30 32 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 5 9 17 18 27 25 25 20 21 13 15 10 20 38 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 5 6 6 1 1 5 0 1 2 0 1 -1 0 -3 -11 SHEAR DIR 359 10 326 286 300 298 292 296 303 287 315 306 315 307 282 254 264 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.3 30.6 29.5 29.5 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 30.7 30.9 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 158 165 160 157 171 161 160 173 173 170 160 174 172 172 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 4 6 2 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 54 53 58 60 65 66 66 64 65 63 68 73 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 47 28 23 7 2 -3 3 15 -30 -12 -52 -36 0 -4 -26 200 MB DIV -2 38 55 41 47 34 51 30 66 64 44 9 8 36 29 64 39 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -4 -5 2 -1 -2 3 -10 -16 -18 -32 -4 -13 23 9 LAND (KM) 117 18 202 391 352 227 34 31 -21 -27 13 73 265 279 40 -263 -443 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.8 16.3 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.2 22.5 23.8 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.5 61.0 63.1 65.0 66.7 69.5 71.7 73.4 75.3 77.0 79.2 81.7 84.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 23 20 18 18 13 12 10 11 10 13 14 15 15 16 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 73 35 28 43 57 80 39 76 55 35 43 40 39 47 31 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 27 CX,CY: -26/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 43. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 22. 25. 29. 27. 26. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 58.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 17.0% 10.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 28.5% 17.6% 9.0% 6.6% 11.8% 9.2% 8.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 28.6% 10.4% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 5.1% 1.4% Consensus: 7.3% 24.7% 13.0% 5.9% 2.3% 4.7% 8.2% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 39 43 43 38 33 33 36 40 43 42 31 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 39 39 34 29 29 32 36 39 38 27 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 34 34 29 24 24 27 31 34 33 22 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT