* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 29 33 36 32 29 30 31 33 35 35 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 29 33 36 32 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 25 23 20 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 9 10 22 23 39 31 24 18 29 20 18 21 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 8 1 0 0 2 2 3 7 7 2 1 -3 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 58 43 35 22 340 331 307 288 290 319 337 351 287 249 216 197 166 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.1 27.8 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.8 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 135 130 139 165 153 149 151 151 146 145 145 137 134 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 60 53 48 46 45 48 54 55 60 60 56 56 58 59 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 43 23 8 5 -11 -23 -45 -54 -55 -59 -61 -55 -37 -45 -74 -96 200 MB DIV 29 -5 -48 -53 -54 17 52 60 24 1 40 10 26 18 13 -15 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 0 -1 -1 1 -1 2 4 4 7 16 9 -1 17 -8 LAND (KM) 1264 1143 1043 944 890 427 168 41 110 276 379 489 583 661 838 1095 1084 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.9 16.4 17.8 19.4 21.0 22.2 23.2 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.1 44.2 46.4 48.8 51.2 55.9 60.0 63.4 65.7 67.0 67.2 66.9 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 23 24 24 23 19 16 12 8 5 6 6 6 10 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 14 18 28 69 33 57 63 46 28 20 23 15 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -2. -8. -14. -18. -21. -22. -25. -27. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 8. 11. 7. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 42.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 12.1% 8.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 5.1% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 6.3% 4.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.6% 2.8% 1.4% .1% .2% 1.3% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 24 29 33 36 32 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 41 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 28 32 35 31 28 29 30 31 33 34 36 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 26 30 33 29 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 24 27 23 20 21 22 23 25 26 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT