* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 29 33 36 35 33 34 38 40 42 42 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 29 33 36 35 33 34 38 40 42 42 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 22 19 17 16 15 16 16 17 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 11 10 19 27 39 40 32 18 20 17 21 18 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 10 8 0 1 0 2 2 6 3 6 1 2 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 33 15 14 360 341 307 313 293 283 297 335 335 15 9 356 319 313 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.2 28.8 29.2 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 127 131 132 153 159 148 153 148 148 148 150 148 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 63 58 52 47 46 46 52 56 55 58 60 64 58 59 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 53 36 18 9 -2 -18 -41 -42 -54 -66 -84 -78 -97 -73 -76 -39 200 MB DIV 34 24 -2 -47 -57 -26 56 53 60 24 10 8 5 34 33 0 25 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -22 -20 -6 -3 -17 -10 -2 8 3 -7 6 3 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1429 1321 1207 1094 999 620 312 42 67 198 289 342 409 428 445 452 484 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.4 19.0 20.3 21.7 22.5 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.9 44.0 46.4 48.9 53.9 58.4 62.2 65.0 67.0 68.0 68.7 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 23 25 25 24 21 18 13 10 6 5 3 1 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 5 4 10 23 40 47 36 81 43 36 31 33 34 34 34 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -2. -9. -17. -21. -22. -23. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 10. 8. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 40.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.54 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 8.9% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 4.1% 3.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 2.5% 1.5% .9% 0% .2% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 29 33 36 35 33 34 38 40 42 42 43 43 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 28 32 35 34 32 33 37 39 41 41 42 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 24 28 31 30 28 29 33 35 37 37 38 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 25 24 22 23 27 29 31 31 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT