* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 07/01/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 31 32 35 41 49 53 53 50 51 53 57 59 63 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 31 32 35 41 49 53 53 50 51 53 57 59 63 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 36 40 40 38 34 33 33 36 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 22 16 12 5 9 18 25 25 31 14 14 10 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -1 1 6 -1 -3 1 3 0 5 4 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 53 47 63 63 58 33 329 327 296 273 270 305 287 347 336 23 335 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.5 29.2 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 147 148 145 144 148 164 158 163 157 153 152 154 154 168 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 66 62 52 50 50 54 59 58 59 61 63 60 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 12 13 12 10 10 11 11 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 84 78 68 62 46 21 8 3 -23 -26 -30 -34 -52 -55 -75 -78 -81 200 MB DIV 79 49 -4 0 -28 -45 -23 18 69 80 76 21 9 11 32 16 1 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -3 -4 -9 -5 -4 -8 -6 0 0 5 -4 -4 -7 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 1278 1305 1259 1107 987 801 554 175 67 6 127 184 223 179 256 28 30 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.9 13.2 14.7 16.3 18.2 19.6 21.1 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 39.4 41.2 43.2 45.2 49.7 54.3 58.8 62.7 65.5 67.5 69.1 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 23 23 22 19 13 11 9 10 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 28 26 22 31 28 35 64 51 99 45 36 39 51 33 44 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 43. 46. 48. 49. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 16. 24. 28. 28. 25. 26. 28. 32. 34. 38. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.4 37.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 07/01/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 15.2% 9.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 19.0% 13.7% 4.7% 3.0% 6.0% 6.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% Consensus: 3.5% 12.1% 8.2% 3.9% 1.0% 2.0% 5.7% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 7.0% 4.6% 1.9% .5% 1.0% 2.8% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 07/01/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 07/01/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 31 32 35 41 49 53 53 50 51 53 57 59 63 67 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 37 45 49 49 46 47 49 53 55 59 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 33 41 45 45 42 43 45 49 51 55 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 33 37 37 34 35 37 41 43 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT