* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 06/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 33 36 43 49 56 61 61 61 60 57 55 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 33 36 43 49 56 61 61 61 58 55 53 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 33 34 34 33 30 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 18 22 17 11 5 12 21 23 29 29 27 30 23 23 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 -4 1 9 -2 -6 1 1 0 7 3 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 29 31 48 56 56 29 354 310 327 313 296 278 269 263 252 287 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.5 29.4 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 145 144 147 145 141 148 162 156 162 161 155 152 152 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 77 74 70 70 63 52 53 53 55 61 62 69 71 71 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 14 16 16 16 14 14 14 13 14 13 10 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 72 77 79 77 69 47 19 11 0 -20 -21 -15 -14 -33 -37 -70 -58 200 MB DIV 111 95 71 49 11 -13 -51 -25 6 37 81 92 94 66 57 26 58 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -7 -3 -12 -6 -3 -10 -5 0 8 6 12 4 -7 8 LAND (KM) 1312 1261 1250 1274 1272 994 811 608 215 65 39 43 142 260 344 503 578 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.2 10.4 11.8 13.1 14.6 15.9 17.5 18.9 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.8 37.4 39.2 40.9 44.8 49.3 53.8 58.1 62.0 65.2 67.2 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 21 23 23 21 19 14 11 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 19 28 33 30 27 31 74 38 97 57 36 36 37 18 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 37. 43. 47. 51. 54. 55. 57. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 2. -1. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 16. 23. 29. 36. 41. 41. 41. 40. 37. 35. 31. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.5 34.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 06/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 21.4% 13.0% 4.8% 2.6% 6.3% 6.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 2.9% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.9% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.6% 2.9% 1.3% .4% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 06/30/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 28 33 36 43 49 56 61 61 61 58 55 53 49 48 46 18HR AGO 20 19 24 29 32 39 45 52 57 57 57 54 51 49 45 44 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 24 31 37 44 49 49 49 46 43 41 37 36 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT