* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 06/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 28 33 39 46 51 53 52 52 52 52 51 51 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 28 33 39 46 51 53 52 46 51 51 49 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 29 28 24 24 21 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 17 16 10 10 9 22 25 39 37 38 20 19 20 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 -1 0 3 5 5 0 0 0 -2 0 6 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 18 25 27 29 33 28 349 303 307 313 307 294 283 264 300 303 325 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 147 143 148 146 148 153 157 161 165 157 153 152 155 156 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 74 73 67 54 50 52 51 57 61 63 65 64 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 74 77 73 71 55 27 15 8 -11 -29 -20 -17 -14 -14 -5 -44 200 MB DIV 100 110 93 67 42 17 -22 -24 2 0 70 65 77 67 49 84 36 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -12 -13 -13 -11 -8 -14 -13 -7 1 -1 0 0 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 1385 1331 1287 1264 1291 1161 933 841 391 126 98 -6 107 150 169 215 179 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.7 10.1 11.5 13.0 14.3 15.7 17.0 18.4 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.8 35.2 36.9 38.7 42.6 47.0 51.6 56.0 60.1 63.7 66.2 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 18 19 21 24 23 22 19 17 12 10 10 11 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 15 18 23 20 31 28 75 34 74 90 39 35 45 48 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 37. 43. 48. 52. 55. 56. 58. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 19. 26. 31. 33. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.3 32.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 06/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.3% 3.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.9% 2.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 06/30/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 28 33 39 46 51 53 52 46 51 51 49 50 47 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 25 30 36 43 48 50 49 43 48 48 46 47 44 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 25 31 38 43 45 44 38 43 43 41 42 39 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT